New XBInsight study reveals how confidence under pressure drives better decisions, both on the NFL field and in business.
Providence, RI — January 5, 2025: In a newly released study, Confidence in Action: The Impact of Believing in Your Abilities on Real-Time Decision Making, XBInsight examined what it takes to make high-stakes calls when every second matters. Drawing from 11+ years of work with professional NFL Officials, the research explores how confidence, composure, and self-talk influence real-time performance, offering direct parallels for business leaders navigating today’s fast-moving workplaces.
The Science Behind Split-Second Decisions
The study, authored by Kathi Graham-Leviss, President of XBInsight,, looks beyond traditional reflective decision-making to the moments where there’s no time for deliberation, whether that’s a referee ruling on a critical play, a manager calming a client escalation, or an executive steering a team through crisis.
“Real-time decisions expose who we are at our core,” said Graham-Leviss. “Through this study, we wanted to quantify what separates those who hesitate from those who act with authority and accuracy. Confidence is a measurable competency that directly predicts performance.”
Over three consecutive seasons (2017–2020), XBInsight’s team analyzed performance data from professional officiating crews. These officials, who must apply complex rules instantly and under intense scrutiny, offered a unique real-world laboratory for studying decision-making under pressure.
Even within a narrow band of elite performance (95–99.7%), small differences mattered. Those with the highest confidence scores consistently demonstrated greater accuracy, stronger composure, and more consistent calls.
Confidence + Courage = Consistency
The findings were striking: officials who “exuded confidence” and “led courageously” ranked among the top 25% of performers year over year. The data revealed a strong correlation between these two competencies, suggesting that confidence and courage reinforce one another.
Officials who trusted their skills and communicated decisively performed better and recovered faster from mistakes. Conversely, when confidence dipped, hesitation often followed, just as in corporate environments where second-guessing can slow execution and erode trust.
“These results mirror what we see in leadership teams every day,” Graham-Leviss noted. “Confidence frees up mental bandwidth. When leaders trust their judgment, they focus on solving problems, not avoiding them. That confidence radiates through teams and organizations.”
From the Sidelines to the Boardroom
While this study centered on performance in a professional sports setting, its lessons reach far beyond the field. In both environments, pressure compresses time and magnifies consequences. Whether calling a penalty in front of millions or making a high-stakes business decision, the underlying behaviors are the same: confidence, resilience, and clarity of thought.
The research identified practical strategies that translate directly into business contexts:
- Positive self-talk to reset quickly after mistakes
- Structured reflection to strengthen learning without overanalyzing failure
- Visualization to improve focus and execution in critical moments
These mental frameworks aren’t limited to elite sports officials. They’re the same ones that help executives lead through uncertainty, HR leaders manage crises, and frontline managers make decisive calls.
A Broader Message for Business Leaders
XBInsight’s work builds on over two decades of behavioral science and industrial-organizational (I/O) psychology. Its AI + Science-powered Talent Decision Platform measures competencies like confidence, resilience, and courageous leadership, and not in isolation, but as part of a predictive model tied to performance outcomes.
The platform’s assessments, used by organizations across 50+ industries, help leaders understand why some employees excel under pressure while others struggle to recover from setbacks. That insight empowers businesses to hire, develop, and promote with greater precision.
Graham-Leviss emphasized. “It’s about trust in your preparation, your process, and your ability to execute when it matters most. When organizations can measure and build that trust at every level, performance becomes sustainable, not situational.”
Confidence as a Catalyst for Culture
The study also sheds light on how confidence influences culture and collaboration. Officiating crews that supported one another (sharing observations, feedback, and encouragement) showed greater composure and accuracy throughout the season. Teams that foster psychological safety were better equipped to reset after errors and maintain collective focus.
Those findings align with XBInsight’s broader research on team dynamics, including its 3C Team Effectiveness Assessment, which measures conditions, competence, and connectedness to help organizations identify how teams collaborate under pressure.
In both contexts, confidence is contagious. When leaders model calm decisiveness, teams follow suit.
Translating Science into Strategy
In practical terms, this research strengthens the growing business case for data-driven talent development. Confidence, long treated as intangible, can now be quantified, coached, and reinforced through scientifically validated assessments and feedback loops.
Companies using XBInsight’s AI + Science approach see tangible outcomes: faster hiring, stronger onboarding, and measurable leadership growth. But as this study demonstrates, the deeper value lies in helping people perform when the margin for error is smallest.
The Takeaway
Whether on the field or in the boardroom, pressure reveals preparation. Confidence, when rooted in self-awareness and supported by data, turns hesitation into decisive action. As organizations face constant disruption and speed demands, the ability to make sound, confident decisions in real time may be the most critical skill of all.
“Confidence doesn’t replace competence,” said Graham-Leviss. “It amplifies it. And when you combine that with science and data, you can build teams that thrive under pressure, not just survive it.”
About XBInsight
XBInsight is a leading provider of AI + Science-powered talent intelligence solutions that help organizations make smarter decisions across the employee lifecycle, from hiring and onboarding to leadership development and succession planning. Combining advanced analytics with 20+ years of I/O psychology research, XBInsight delivers predictive, science-backed insights that align people strategy with business performance.
To learn more about this study or request a demo of the XBInsight Talent Decision Platform, visit xbinsight.com